Thursday, November 8, 2012

2012 repeats 2008's message to Republicans

Dear Republicans,

I know you love Fox News and your Right Wing Talk Radio, but I think it's time for you to pay attention to what the electorate is saying... here's a bit of a breakdown of the glaring signs that you should take as warning messages:

Women:
In 2008 and 2012, women voted of Obama approximately 55% vs the Republican opponent 44%.  Why do women like Obama?  Probably because they like the Democratic Party, in general, more than they like the Republican Party, in general.  Why?  Perhaps it has to do with the long standing stances on issues that Democrats and Republicans have taken.  Democrats are pro-choice, Republicans are a range of sometimes-pro-choice-but-not-always to the-woman's-life-is-over-if-the-pregnancy-endangers-it.  Democrats are in favor of fair-pay for women, Republicans are in favor of women cooking dinner.  Democrats are in favor of helping children through college, Republicans are in favor of removing the tax cuts and low-rate loans that have been put in place to that end.  Get the picture?  Thought you might.

Minorities:

  • African Americans voted in favor of Obama approximately 94% vs 5% for his opponent, the percentages didn't change all that much and before you dismiss this as just being that Obama is the first African American President, Kerry got 88% of the African American vote in 2004 and Gore got 90% in 2000 (and Gore and Kerry are both very very white).
  • Latin Americans voted for Obama over McCain 2 to 1 and over Romney 71% to 27%.  That's right, more Latin Americans voted for Obama in 2012 than in 2008.  Why?  It might have something to do with Obama supporting immigrant rights, or perhaps it has to do with Republicans being essentially an old, white, men's club.  This is an important factor, though, because Latin Americans are the fastest growing group of voters in the country.  If Republicans continue to push them away as they have been for the last decade, they're going to encounter more and more difficulties.
  • Asian Americans also increased their voting for Obama, from 62% in 2008 to 73% in 2012.  Not for nothing but I think we're seeing a trend here... 
  • "Other races" meanwhile decreased their voting for Obama in 2012, from 66% to 58%, but this is still a majority vote for the Democrat and continues to indicate that Republicans have a big problem with getting minorities to vote for them.



Age:
Alright, here's the real kicker.  Americans of two age groups reduced their support for Obama between 2008 and 2012: 18-29 year olds reduced by 6% and 45-64 year olds reduced by 3%.  But here's the thing, the young adult vote (18-29) still voted strongly for Obama (66% in 2008, 60% in 2012).  This is a problem for the old, white, men's club that is the Republican party because young americans are starting to vote more (they made up 17% of the vote in 2004, 18% in 2008, and 19% in 2012).  30-44 year olds are also strongly in favor of Obama vs his opponent, sticking with 52% in both elections, though they represented a smaller portion of the vote in 2012 than in 2008, dropping from 29% of the vote to 27%.  This, too, is bad news for the Republicans, because today's middle-aged voters will soon enough be the older voters.  

Income:
I think it goes without saying that lower income voters are more likely to vote Democratic, but in case you doubt that:
  • 2012 - Those making $50k or less voted 60% for Obama, those making more than $50k, 45%.
  • 2008 - 73% of those making less than $15k voted for Obama, 60% of those making $15k-$30k, and 55% of those making $30k-$50k.  Surprisingly, the Obama got nearly half if not a slight majority within higher income ranges, including 52% of those making $200k or more
  • 2004 - 63% of those making less than $15k voted for Kerry, 57% of those making $15k-$30k, and 50% of those making $30k-$50k.  Those making more than $50k voted somewhat strongly for Bush (growing from 55% for $50k-$100k, 57% for $100k-$150k, 58% for $150k-$200k and jumping up to 63% for $200+)
  • 2000 - 58% of those making less than $15k voted for Gore, 54% of those making $15k-$30k, and 49% of those making $30k-$50k (Bush got 48% of that group).  Like in 2004, the percentage of voters going for Bush in 2000 increased as the income range increased, peaking at 55% for $100k+.
The first three factors indicate a growing difficulty for the Republicans... the fourth is also a growing factor but only if the economy continues to the path it's been taking: larger disparity between the lower income and upper income and a larger percentage of the nation having a lower income.  I think the trouble is that Republicans are trying to pull a wool over women's and non-whites' eyes.  They're trying to convince people that they're on their side when they hold stances and vote in the opposite way.  Democrats have trouble here too, but it's about getting the word out that they are on minorities' and women's sides.  Many people have come to believe that all politicians are the same, but this can't be further from the truth, and all you have to do is look at how the two parties vote on a variety of issues and the party platforms.

So, what do Republicans need to do?  They need to change their plan and stop lying about who they are and actually change who they are.  They need to realize that doing lip service to people's issues isn't enough, you need to actually do something productive on those issues rather than hindering them.


1 comment:

  1. A sad but interesting note from Charles Blow of the New York Times: The few states where a majority of white voters voted for Obama all have relatively small numbers of minority voters -- so, no threat.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/opinion/blow-election-data-dive.html?ref=charlesmblow

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